Украинские события отодвинули на второй план даже сирийскую войну. Но это не значит, что другие горячие точки хоть сколько-нибудь остыли. Продолжается противостояние и в Таиланде. Расчёт премьер-министра Йинглак Чинават перевести волну беспорядков в легитимное русло досрочных выборов не оправдывается. Уже предварительное голосование резко усилило напряжённость. Что произойдёт на основном, представить нетрудно.
Всеобщие выборы в таиландский парламент назначены на 2 февраля. Для тех граждан, которые по каким-либо причинам не могут принять в них участие, голосование попытались организовать вчера. Однако правительственных возможностей для этого не хватило. В Бангкоке оппозиционеры блокировали почти 80% избирательных участков. Столкновений с полицией и войсками при этом не происходило. Таиландские силовики подчёркнуто уходят в нейтралитет и хладнокровно ждут исхода борьбы. Зато жёстко проявились гражданские сторонники правительства: во время митинга в столице был застрелен один из лидеров антиправительственного движения Сутин Таратин.
Практически сорваны выборы в курортных зонах на юге Таиланда. Местные власти сочли за лучшее официально отменить их проведение, дабы не отпугивать туристов уличным насилием. География очень характерна – столица и районы международной рекреации. Сосредоточения тайского «креативного класса» — офисных служащих и персонала туристической инфраструктуры. Отметим это, здесь во многом содержится социальное объяснение происходящего.
Таиландская оппозиция протестует против «популизма» и «диктата большинства». В этом коренное отличие таиландских событий от протестных выступлений в других странах мира. Обычно антиправительственные демонстранты требуют свободного волеизъявления, соблюдения принципов народовластия, выдвигают популистские лозунги против правящей элиты. Не то в Таиланде. Оппозиционные силы, хотя их основная структура и именуется «демократической партией», добиваются отмены избирательных процедур, отстранения масс от политики, апеллируют не к народу, а к монарху и генералитету.
Вкратце напомним предысторию нынешних событий. В 2001 году победу на парламентских выборах одержала партия «Тайцы любят тайцев», созданная Таксином Чинаватом. Бывший полицейский Чинават являл тип «нового тайского» — не будучи представителем потомственной элиты, он обучился в США, организовал успешный бизнес (кстати, очень креативный – в сфере компьютерного программирования и телекоммуникаций), стал долларовым миллиардером и включился в политику. При этом важно учесть: Чинават родился на крестьянском севере страны. Выходцы из этих районов обычно карьеры не делали. Политика и бизнес оставались уделом столичной королевской элиты. В последние десятилетия допуск в неё получили представители куроротно-туристического юга. Но не северяне, на которых в Бангкоке смотрят как креаклы на «уралвагонзавод».
Правительство Чинавата резко изменило приоритеты. Инвестиции пошли на север. Там началось активное строительство, стали появляться современные рабочие места, формировалась социальная сфера. Чинават понимал, что межрегиональные диспропорции, когда столица и курорты богатеют за счёт отсталых крестьянских районов, вот-вот заблокируют общенациональное развитие. Если не обрушат страну…
Понятно, что премьер-земляк стал очень популярен в глубинке. И столь же ненавистен в столице. Возникло антиправительственное движение, в 2006 году вынудившее Чинавата уйти. Основу его составил тот самый «креативный класс», о котором шла речь выше (парадоксальным образом сомкнувшийся с исламско-фундаменталистским терроризмом). Чинават был подвергнут уголовному преследованию и вынужден эмигрировать.
Но тут политическая система забуксовала. На всех выборах партия Чинавата решительно побеждала – ведь большинство тайцев живут не в столице и не на курортах. А это большинство выигрывало от реформ. Безотносительно к тому, что Таксин Чинават – отнюдь не эталон законопослушания и аскетизма (своё состояние он делал методами, напоминающими «баронов-разбойников», а по образу жизни – олигарх как олигарх).
В 2007 году партия Чинавата вновь получила значительное большинство в парламенте. Во главе правительства стал генерал Самак Сунтхаравет – кстати, заслуженный антикоммунист, сыгравший важную роль в разгроме левого движения осенью 1976 года. Сунтхаравет откровенно позиционировался как сторонник Чинавата. Стало ясно, что популистская концепция развития с опорой на крестьянские массы имеет сторонников не только в деревнях.
Но она имела и противников. Прежде всего в монархо-бюрократической элите и придворном бизнесе. Тайская аристократия не привыкла к конкурентам из глуши (да ещё лицам китайской национальности) и не собиралась к ним привыкать. Деревенская чернь должна знать своё место и ждать королевской милости. Этот принцип высшего чиновничества и армейского командования – дальновидный Сунтхаравет всё же остался исключением – был с восторгом поддержан столично-курортным офисным слоем: госслужащими, менеджерами, творческими работниками, операторами турфирм.
Но в 2011 году вновь состоялись всеобщие выборы. И вновь победа с разгромным счётом досталась партии Чинавата, хотя теперь она называется «Для Таиланда» и во главе её стоит не Таксин, а его сестра Йинглак. Женщина обаятельная и искренняя, она с самого начала предупредила, что является «политическим клоном» брата. И действительно попыталась продолжить его политику – стимулировать сельскую глубинку за счёт столицы и туристических зон.
Через два года креаклы, как в 2006-м, вышли свергать «семейку». Мало кто прямо говорит: не станем делиться с деревней. Нет, мы слышим другое – дескать, недопустимо, чтобы страной правил из-за границы наглый коррупционер, вожак люмпенской стихии. Цивилизованные интеллектуалы не допустят такого! Йинглак Чинават предлагает решить вопрос обыденно, через досрочные выборы. И вот тут наступает момент истины. «Демократическая» оппозиция категорически от этого отказывается. Хватит голосований, хватит популизма, политика не дело голытьбы – это звучит почти дословно. «Демократы» просят короля Пумипона Адульядета сформировать правящий совет – разумеется, включив, наряду с высшими чиновниками, представителей креативного класса – который поможет двору править страной. Поставит чернь на место. Вот в чём суть.
В 1976 году, когда в Таиланде ощущалась угроза коммунистической экспансии, в авангард противостояния вышли три структуры. Первая называлась «Девятая сила» — предприниматели, торговцы, монахи. Вторая – «Сельские скауты» (они же «Тигры деревни»), крестьянское ополчение. Третья – «Красные гауры», приблатнённая молодёжь. Последние были особенно активны, потому как слышали о коммунистических замашках и умели на это ответить. Армейцы типа Сунтхаравета присоединились лишь на последнем этапе, когда «гауры» и «скауты» уже решили вопрос с левацко-коммунистическим центром в Таммасатском университете.
Сейчас времена иные. Но мы видим, как в античинаватовские митинги летят пули и гранаты. Сторонники брата и сестры Чинават — «краснорубашечники» — чем-то напоминают «гауров». Рекрутируются они из городских низов, поскольку в Бангкоке живут не только чиновники и креаклы. О нынешних «скаутах» нечего и говорить, хотя село недостаточно организовано для похода на Бангкок. Как и в 1976-м, основная масса ждёт королевского слова. Армия и полиция, кстати, в первую очередь.
Украина, Сирия, Таиланд кажутся сейчас очень похожими. На поверхностный взгляд почти неразличимыми. Но общественное движение против олигархической власти — это одно, а гражданская война против партийной диктатуры – всё-таки другое. Офис же, вцепившийся в преференции перед деревней, и мечтающий о королевско-генеральском владычестве – нечто третье. Вообще не из той оперы.
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