13й Международный экономический форум, проходивший в Петербурге с 4 по 6 июня, закончил свою работу. Несмотря на то, что Валентина Матвиенко обещала, что кризис не окажет на работу форума никакого негативного влияния, прежнего размаха достичь так и не удалось.
Для сравнения, в 2008 г. экономический форум собрал в северной столице более 10 тысяч человек, в том числе 800 иностранных участников из 74 стран и 12 глав государств. С российской стороны в форуме приняли участие более 900 руководителей российского бизнеса. В этом году все было куда скромнее. Форум собрал 3,5 тысячи участников. Было представлено лишь 400 российских и 300 иностранных компаний, на форум приехали только 5 глав государств. Правда, и организация мероприятия обошлась казне на треть дешевле (550 млн рублей).
Существенно снизилась по сравнению с прошлым годом деловая активность на форуме. Если в 2008 году было заключено 17 контрактов на $14,6 млрд, то в этом году, по признанию министра экономического развития Эльвиры Набиуллиной, сделки были заключены «на несколько миллиардов долларов». Точную сумму министр не уточнила. «В этом году больше велись переговоры о рефинансировании и реструктуризации долгов между компаниями и кредиторами, новых сделок было меньше», — отметил министр финансов Алексей Кудрин.
Впрочем, было бы странно ожидать, что в кризис, когда ВВП страны снижается почти на 10%, деловая активность на форуме будет высокой. Куда больше надежд было возложено на возможность диалога между бизнесом и властью по поводу путей выхода из кризиса. Ожидалось, что будут предложены и обсуждены какие-то конкретные действия, которые смогли бы оздоровить экономику.
Увы, кроме по меньшей мере спорной инициативы Бориса Грызлова ввести палладиевый рубль (см. «В кризис.ру» от 4 июня), действительно свежих идей высказано не было. Участники выслушали доклад президента РФ о том, что «шампанское открывать еще рано», а «кризис – растение многолетние и очень живучее», большинством голосом спрогнозировали W-образный ход развития кризиса (варианты были: V, U, L и W), помечтали о перспективах изменения цен на нефть (см. «В кризис.ру» от 5 июня) и обсудили уже традиционную тему, хватит ли России денег, чтобы справиться со «второй волной» кризиса. На вопрос Reuters, удалось ли на форуме составить представление о том, что намерены делать российские власти для выхода из кризиса, бизнесмен Давид Якобашвили красноречиво ответил: «Я ждал какой-нибудь «морковки», но пока не получил. Я пока ничего не услышал. Буду еще спрашивать, может быть, кто-нибудь услышал».
«В общем, ничего особенного»
Редакция «В кризис.ру» обсудила итоги форума с заместителем главного редактора журнала «Эксперт Северо-Запад» Владимиром Грязневичем. По его мнению, не следовало ожидать, что на форуме будет принято какое-то решение. Природа кризиса не ясна, а потому обсуждать его пока рано.
«Форумы не для принятия решений собираются. Они собираются для обсуждения, чтобы влиятельные мировые люди встретились и между собой поговорили. Поэтому форум всегда нужен, любой. Но бывает, на форумах принимаются серьезные решения. В данном случае ничего не решено. Самая главная обсуждаемая проблема — это кризис, а решить ничего пока нельзя, потому что нет единого мнения о природе и причинах кризиса. Непонятен его механизм, поэтому нет ясного решения, как с этим бороться. Еще недостаточно информации накоплено об этом кризисе и поэтому, как и в Давосе, на форуме не было принято никакого определенного мнения. Да и не могло быть, на самом деле», — считает господин Грязневич.
Не удивляет эксперта и значительное сокращение участников форума: «Все понимают, что обсуждать что-либо еще рано, нечего обсуждать. У всех стран ситуация качественно примерно одинаковая. Кто мог, кто хотел поговорить, те приехали. В общем, ничего особенного. В следующем году наверняка форум будет более конструктивным, потому что российскому кризису будет уже полтора года, тут можно будет ожидать результатов. Будет осмысление ошибок, возможно, появятся какие-то идеи», — надеется Грязневич.
Георгий Нигилевский, Мария Денисова, «В кризис.ру»
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