Турецкое общество сильнее российского. Это известно давно, как минимум с 2013 года. Турки сопротивляются диктатуре и узурпации несравнимо упорнее и жёстче. Даже сейчас, когда мало кто сомневался в исходе назначенного Эрдоганом голосования, «нацлидер» получил немногим более 50%. А правящая партия и вовсе не дотянула до большинства. При явке, небывало высокой за три десятилетия. Это всё, что можно назвать обнадёживающим в новостях из Турции. Но немало и этого.
Реджеп Тайип Эрдоган изготовился в султаны всерьёз. Не как Путин в цари. Гораздо основательнее. Уличные протесты разогнаны. Оппозиционные партии усмирены. Контрудар жестоко отбит, госаппарат зачищен и разгромлена собственная армия – многолетний бастион светской республики. Конституционно установлена авторитарная президентская власть вместо парламентской системы. На страну непрерывно обрушиваются валы госпропаганды. Ведётся барабанная внешняя экспансия. В Сирии турецкая армия воюет не против асадовской диктатуры или террористического фундаментализма, а против курдского освободительного движения.
На таком фоне очевидно назначение вчерашних всеобщих выборов. Одновременно и президентских и парламентских. Эрдоган пожелал церемонии поклонения. Перед последним броском к возрождению османского величия. Во всей красе его собственного понимания. Султаном турецкого президента окружение именует давно. Пора привыкать остальным.
И всё же – выборы в Турции пока остаются выборами. Может быть, при своём правлении Эрдоган позволил это последний раз. На президентский пост, кроме него самого, претендовали пять кандидатов. За Эрдогана проголосовали 52,6% при 86%-ной явке. Школьный учитель физики Мухаррем Индже, кандидат Народно-республиканской партии (НРП) – турецкие социал-демократы, преданные сторонники светско-прогрессистского наследия Ататюрка – собрал 30,6%. Юрист-правозащитник Селахаттин Демирташот Партии демократии народов (ПДН) – курдские демосоциалисты – получил 8,4%. Историк-философ Мераль Акшенер, выдвинутая Хорошей партией – действительно неплохая: оппозиционные светские националисты – поддержана 7,3%. Умеренный исламист Темель Карамоллаоглу (Партия счастья) и национал-марксист Догу Перинчек (Партия Родины) не набрали и по одному проценту.
В парламентском разрезе – который прежде был главным, а теперь второстепенен – всё не так однозначно, но в целом итог тот же. Почти половину мандатов – 295 из 600 – завоевала консервативно-исламистская Партия справедливости и развития (ПСР). Иначе говоря, партия Эрдогана. С ней в коалиции Народный альянс выступает Партия националистического движения (ПНД) – легендарные «Серые волки». Вместе исламисты и националисты имеют достаточное большинство в 344 места.
Лидер националистов Девлет Бахчели, не так давно грозивший Эрдогану уличным избиением («волки» умеют) всё-таки не удержался от соблазна приобщиться к власти. И пошёл на союз с победителями. Именно это, кстати, привело к отколу Хорошей партии: сторонники харизматичной дамы Акшенер помнят, что основатель «Серых волков» полковник-неофашист Альпарслан Тюркеш был верен светским заветам Ататюрка. Между прочим, на этих выборах партия Бахчели потеряла почти половину голосов, удержав немногим более 8%. Тогда как Хорошая партия – созданная чуть более полугода назад – с первого захода взяла 7% и получила 43 мандата. Почти столько же, сколько полувековая ПНД. Избиратели светских националистов наказали Бахчели за отступничество. И поддержали Акшенер.
Основной оппозиционной силой остаётся НРП – 146 парламентских мест. С ней вступила в блок Хорошая партия. Этот Национальный альянс, таким образом, имеет 189 мандатов. Курдская ПДН с 67 депутатами держится, понятно, особняком. Но столь же понятно, что в парламентской борьбе будет блокироваться скорее с альянсом Национальным, нежели с Народным.
НРП шла на эти выборы как на последний бой. Такой яростной критики Эрдогана не звучало все долгие годы его правления. За мракобесие исламизации и диктатуры, за измену идеалам Ататюрка, который официально остаётся высшим авторитетом всех турок. Проще всего обвинить Бахчели: выдержи он принцип, пойди на союз с народными республиканцами… Но это вряд ли что-то принципиально изменило бы. Дело не в партийных комбинациях.
Эрдоган и ПСР потерпели поражения на западе и на юго-востоке страны. Вольно-европеизированные города побережья и, естественно, курдские районы отвергли «духовные скрепы» исламизации и неоосманскую «вертикаль власти». Но их однозначно поддержал массив внутренней Турции. Особенно деревни и небольшие города. Где общественные установки передаются через проповеди в мечетях. Где доминирует средний класс торговли и сферы услуг, подобный иранскому базару. В обеих странах эта социальная сила выступает оплотом исламизма и склонна поддерживать диктаторские тенденции. (Вспоминаются наивности «Демократической России» начала 1990-х – насчёт того, какая «миддл клэсс» опора и основа демократии…)
Эти люди поддержали Эрдогана в критический момент июля 2016-го. Не только потому, что его экономическая политика способствовала заметному росту базарных доходов (чего не скажешь о промышленности крупных городов, работники которой голосуют за НРП и реже за националистов). В большинстве своём они идейно поддерживают клерикально-державную реакцию, и Эрдоган – реально их кумир. Просто потому, что так им кажется удобнее жить. Ячейки ПСР и мечети уж постарались активировать историческую память, как славно «велось исстари».
А что же другие? «Они покинули страну или вывели средства за границу, спасая капитал или жизнь, – пишет немецкая обозревательница Кристиана Шлётцер. – Это люди, которые не хотят, чтобы их дети росли в стране, где могут быть задержаны на студенческой демонстрации, а затем исчезнуть в застенке. Это предприниматели, которые не хотят жить в стране, где судьи боятся властей». Не хотят – но в лучшем случае голосуют или уезжают. Не более. Ибо как им верить в свои силы, если два года назад одолеть Эрдогана не смогли даже генералы? Типичный комплекс «креативного класса». Но ему подвержены не все. Акции протеста прокатывались по всей предвыборной кампании. Туркам ведь некуда отступать – султанский накат придётся встречать лицом к лицу. И сопротивляться ему.
Между тем, сегодня поступили новости из Тегерана. Протестные демонстрации грозят повторить волну начала года. Тысячи иранцев жгут покрышки, скандируют «Смерть Хаменеи!», требуют прекратить интервенцию в Сирии…
Никита Требейко, «В кризис.ру»
[…] В американском Сейлорсберге, штат Пенсильвания, скончался 83-летний Фетхуллах Гюлен – турецкий мыслитель, мусульманский проповедник, основатель исламско-демократического движения «Хизмет». Фетхуллах Гюлен был самым авторитетным и популярным противником президента Турции Рейджепа Тайипа Эрдогана и его «султанского» правлени…. […]
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