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Однако постепенно мировая экономика восстанавливается от кризиса. Более оптимистично смотрят в будущее и автопроизводители, которые делают ставки на 10-процентный рост американского авторынка по итогам 2010г.
Более того, на этой неделе General Motors, наряду с Toyota Motor Corp и Honda Motor Co, сообщили, что собираются наращивать объемы производства в США. Теперь вместо приостановки заводов и увольнения сотрудников все больше автоконцернов начинают постепенно возвращаться к докризисным уровням производства.
Хотя, конечно, теперь главы автоконцернов не торопятся давать оптимистичные прогнозы. По словам бывшего экономиста GM Пола Боули, это нормальная реакция на кризис. "Похожим образом обстояли дела и во время рецессии начала 90х гг. прошлого века", — говорит он. Правда, при этом Пол Боули добавляет, что американской автоиндустрии понадобится пару лет, чтобы вернуться на докризисные уровни производства автомобилей. "Эта отрасль восстанавливается, но довольно медленными темпами", — считает эксперт.
По его оценкам, объемы продаж новых автомобилей в США вырастут по итогам 2010г. до 12 млн единиц. В 2011г. в Штатах будет реализовано уже порядка 13 млн автомобилей, а в 2012г. – около 15 млн шт. Такие объемы продаж ощутимо выше показателей 2009г., когда количество проданных в США автомобилей сократилось на 20% — до 10,4 млн единиц.
Самое интересное, что похожих прогнозов придерживаются почти все крупные автопроизводители. Ford – единственный американский автоконцерн, который сумел избежать реорганизации – прогнозирует рост авторынка США по итогам 2010г. до 11,5 млн единиц. "Не думаю, что возникнут новые проблемы. По итогам текущего года мы увидим улучшения на мировых авторынках", — полагает ведущий аналитик Ford Джордж Пипас.
Вторят ему и эксперты J.D. Power and Associates и IHS Global Insight, прогнозирующие рост рынка США как минимум до 11,5 млн автомобилей. "Наши прогнозы довольно консервативны, и вполне возможно, что по итогам года рост рынка превзойдет самые смелые ожидания", — говорит исполнительный директор подразделения мирового прогнозирования J.D. Power Джефф Шустер.
В свою очередь аналитик IHS Global Insight Ребекка Линдлэнд полагает, что по итогам этого года в Штатах может быть реализовано около 12 млн автомобилей. "Существует потенциал для роста этого рынка, поскольку уже сейчас есть накопившийся спрос", — подчеркивает эксперт.
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