Военно-политический кризис в западноафриканской республике Мали перерос в государственный переворот и развивается далее. Серия поражений, понесенных правительственными войсками от восставших в январе туарегов, спровоцировала армейский мятеж. Скоро две недели, как группа младших офицеров объявила о низложении президента Амаду Туре. Капитан Амаду Саного, вставший во главе военной хунты, призывает «друзей Мали» на помощь против мятежников-туарегов. Однако новые власти сразу оказались в полной международной изоляции. Туареги же продолжают наступать. Перекраивая зоны политического контроля и экономического влияния.
Переворот совершен буквально за несколько недель до президентских выборов. Наиболее вероятным преемником президента Туре считался бывший министр иностранных дел Требилу Драме. Этот деятель тесно связан с французской политической элитой и рассматривается как более прозападный. Его Партия национального возрождения Мали уже вела переговоры с Туре об организации переходного процесса. Во внутриполитическом курсе серьезных изменений не ожидалось. Но внешняя политика при Драме должна была заметно скорректироваться.
Амаду Туре ориентировался на Ливию и Китай. Поддержка панафриканских проектов покойного Муамара Каддафи оплачивалась финансовыми субсидиями и политическим прикрытием из Триполи. В частности, именно Каддафи сдерживал туарегов, выступал третейским судьей между ними и властями Бамако. КНР осуществляет в Мали ряд крупномасштабных строительно-коммуникационных и инфраструктурных проектов. Китайцы строят мост через Нигер, прокладывают скоростную автотрассу. Нефтяная корпорация Tink ведет поисковые работы в регионе Нара. Политически Пекин – традиционный партнер Бамако еще со времен Мао Цзэдуна и Модибо Кейты.
Крушение Ливийской Джамахирии резко повысило для Мали значимость связей с Китаем. Добыча золота и бокситов (основные кластеры вообще-то слаборазвитой малийской промышленности), урановые разработки контролируются пока британскими, южноафриканскими, австралийскими и французскими компаниями на паях с малийским правительством. Но и здесь китайское проникновение воспринимается как вопрос времени.
Важный китайский козырь – готовность к перспективным вложениям в инфраструктуру. Западные инвесторы к этому не очень склонны, они стремятся к быстрой отдаче. Китайцы же мыслят как минимум десятилетиями. И учитывают не только оперативный коммерческий интерес, но и установки государственной экспансии.
В свое время Модибо Кейта и Муса Траоре были клиентами СССР. Идеологически они придерживались «социалистической ориентации», лавируя между Мао Цзэдуном и Брежневым. Но сейчас российское влияние в Мали почти сошло на нет. Экономические связи касаются в основном закупок малийского хлопка. Правда, свои контакты устанавливают с Бамако отдельные российские компании и регионы. «Уралимпекс» предлагает топливо, Кировская обладминистрация – сельхозтехнику, нижегородский ПАЗ продвигал на малийском тендере малогабаритные автобусы (правда, безуспешно)… Но это не тот уровень, где возможно включение в местный политический процесс.
Предстоящий уход Туре и приход Драме означали перенос внешнеэкономических акцентов на Западную Европу. Драме намеревался также активизировать антитеррористическое сотрудничество с западными спецслужбами. Туре и здесь не проявлял особого энтузиазма. В этом вопросе он полагался на… туарегов, чьи отношения с исламистами до последнего времени были жестко враждебны.
Исчезновение фактора Каддафи все перевернуло вверх дном. И правительство Мали, и сообщество туарегов, организованное в Движение за освобождение Азавада (NMLA), лишились спонсора и разводящего. Вооружение и боевой опыт, приобретенные туарегами на каддафистской службе, обеспечили им явное преимущество над слабой малийской армией. Северо-восточные регионы урановых месторождений, потенциальных нефтегазовых разработок, залежей комплексных руд фактически уже захвачены. Но главные богатство Мали – золото и отчасти бокситы, добываемые на юго-западе. Перед страной встает перспектива сквозного нашествия. Формально туареги претендуют лишь на территорию своего Азавада. Но не факт, что она не будет использована как плацдарм для дальнейшего продвижения.
Правительство Туре продемонстрировало полную недееспособность в войне с хорошо организованным и сильно мотивированным противником. Ключевые города севера терялись один за другим. Явно растерялось и международное сообщество. При этом, надо отметить, туарегское движение неплохо организовало свой политический пиар. По факту во главе его стоит Мохаммед Наджим, служивший в армии Каддафи. Но в политическом руководстве NMLA известные интеллектуалы, демократы и правозащитники – Билал Ашери, Махмуд Агхали, Амината Биби. Есть особая должность уполномоченного по правам человека, которую занимает Ахмед Акхагтман. Для Европы и Америки это вполне приемлемые фигуры.
В ходе европейских турне туарегские лидеры обещали искоренить в регионе «Аль-Каиду», пресечь наркотрафик и даже предоставить французам преференции на урановых разработках. Иначе говоря, сделать все то, от чего уклонялся Туре. Словами они при этом не ограничились: бойцы NMLA, развивая наступление на позиции правительственных войск, нанесли заодно ощутимые удары по местным исламистским формированиям.
Неудивительно, что призыв Амаду Саного помочь Национальному комитету восстановления демократии и возрождения Мали не встретил отклика. Переворот осудили и Вашингтон, и Париж, и Всемирный банк, и африканские соседи, объединенные в региональное экономическое сообщество ECOWAS. Все они потребовали возвращения президента Туре (он скрывается под охраной верных гвардейцев), пригрозив в противном случае всеми видами санкций. Прежние проекты помощи Мали приостановлены. Особое внимание привлекло выступление функционера МИД КНР Хун Лэя, курирующего Арабский Восток и Африку. Несмотря на традиционно расплывчатую дипломатическую риторику, он дал понять, что Китай найдет способы защитить своих граждан и свои экономические интересы в Мали.
Не сказать, чтобы Франция, Евросоюз и США были сильно заинтересованы в восстановлении власти Туре. Но он все равно вот-вот уходит. Наиболее вероятный преемник настроен оптимально для Запада. Даже туареги выглядят подходящими партнерами. Зато Саного и его соратники, представляющие армейские низы, не имеющие никакого политического опыта, движимые молодой горячностью и эмоциональным возмущением, не устраивают никого.
Тем более что первые их действия выглядели весьма сумбурно. Невнятно сообщается о судьбе Туре, ясно, что захватить его не удалось. В Бамако начались столкновения и погромы. Более полусотни малийских партий и профсоюзов тут же учредили Объединенный фронт в защиту республики и демократии – против «идиотского» путча. Просьба Саного о международной помощи прозвучала вслед за объявлением о закрытии границ. Это встревожило всех партнеров и инвесторов. Даже вести о контратаке войск нового правительства, отбивших у туарегов город Гао, этой тревоги не перевесили. К тому же туареги быстро восстановили позиции. Судя по вчерашним вечерним сообщениям, пал последний оплот правительства на севере Мали. Отряды NMLA вступили в древний Тимбукту.
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Watching a sunset over the ocean is one of the most peaceful experiences in life. Nature has a way of reminding us how small but connected we all are.
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Live concerts have a special magic. No recording can ever capture that raw energy of the crowd and the artist performing in the moment.
Open-world games are the best! Nothing beats the feeling of total freedom, exploring vast landscapes, and creating your own adventure.
Watching a sunset over the ocean is one of the most peaceful experiences in life. Nature has a way of reminding us how small but connected we all are.
Friendship, some say, is a single soul residing in two bodies, but why limit it to two? What if friendship is more like a great, endless web, where each connection strengthens the whole? Maybe we are not separate beings at all, but parts of one vast consciousness, reaching out through the illusion of individuality to recognize itself in another.
If everything in this universe has a cause, then surely the cause of my hunger must be the divine order of things aligning to guide me toward the ultimate pleasure of a well-timed meal. Could it be that desire itself is a cosmic signal, a way for nature to communicate with us, pushing us toward the fulfillment of our potential? Perhaps the true philosopher is not the one who ignores his desires, but the one who understands their deeper meaning.
Time is often called the soul of motion, the great measure of change, but what if it is merely an illusion? What if we are not moving forward but simply circling the same points, like the smoke from a burning fire, curling back onto itself, repeating patterns we fail to recognize? Maybe the past and future are just two sides of the same moment, and all we ever have is now.
Even the gods, if they exist, must laugh from time to time. Perhaps what we call tragedy is merely comedy from a higher perspective, a joke we are too caught up in to understand. Maybe the wisest among us are not the ones who take life the most seriously, but those who can laugh at its absurdity and find joy even in the darkest moments.
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All knowledge, it is said, comes from experience, but does that not mean that the more we experience, the wiser we become? If wisdom is the understanding of life, then should we not chase every experience we can, taste every flavor, walk every path, and embrace every feeling? Perhaps the greatest tragedy is to live cautiously, never fully opening oneself to the richness of being.
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Friendship, some say, is a single soul residing in two bodies, but why limit it to two? What if friendship is more like a great, endless web, where each connection strengthens the whole? Maybe we are not separate beings at all, but parts of one vast consciousness, reaching out through the illusion of individuality to recognize itself in another.
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