Региональные выборы во Франции освещались и комментировались у нас не слабее российских. Успех Национального фронта в первом туре воспринимался как прорыв пророссийских сил. Нынешнее голосование воспринималось как репетиция президентского. В агитпропе РФ уже грезили «мощнейшим европейским союзником». Поражение Марин Ле Пен во втором туре охладило этот пыл. Но политическая ситуация в самой Франции не столько прояснилась, сколько осложнилась. Да и само поражение весьма условно.
6 декабря за ультраправых националистов НФ проголосовал каждый третий французский избиратель. В укрупнённом масштабе повторился шок 2002 года. Тогда во второй тур президентских выборов вместе с тогдашним президентом Жаком Шираком вышел не респектабельный социалистов Лионель Жоспен, которого многомудрые аналитики уже видели хозяином Елисейского дворца. Его опередил Жан-Мари Ле Пен. Перекошенные ужасом лица избирателей соцпартии обошли первые полосы мировой прессы. Происшедшее было названо «французской болезнью».
Ле Пен-старший, отец блистающей ныне Марин, не имел никаких шансов. Хотя и призывал своих сторонников надеяться и верить. Во-первых, французское общество было не тем, что теперь. Исламистская угроза не ощущалась до такой степени. Парижских терактов никто бы не увидел в самом кошмарном сне. Бытовой расизм набирал силу, но опять-таки не достигал нынешних степеней. «Мы все – либо потомки, либо друзья иммигрантов, и нам наплевать, нравится ли это тебе, Ле Пен! – ревели многотысячные демонстрации. – Запомни, это был твой последний успех!»
Во-вторых, благодаря шоку одумались системные политики. Им пришлось временно оставить местную привычку в духе сколько звёзд, столько и галактик. Особенно это касалось левых, которые выступили в первом туре пятью колоннами и боролись больше друг с другом, нежели с правыми и ультраправыми. Через две недели социалисты и коммунисты подчинились «республиканской дисциплине» и проголосовали за Ширака.
Нечто подобное повторилось теперь. 6 декабря Национальный фронт лидировал. Этому способствовало понятное на фоне терактов усиление правонационалистических настроений. Традиционно жёсткая позиция НФ в вопросах иммиграции отражает сейчас доминирующие настроения масс (хотя, кстати, Марин проявляет здесь большую гибкость, нежели Жан-Мари). Падает среди французов и авторитет идеи «европейского единства», оборачивающийся необходимостью всем миром спасать средиземноморских банкротов, начиная с Греции. Опять же, НФ с самого начала выступал против интеграции по модели Евросоюза. Наконец, внутренние социально-экономические трудности заставляют прислушиваться к популистским призывам националистов. Они представляются реальными защитниками простого человека, в отличие от богатых демагогов-социалистов, политаппарат которых давно сросся с банковской элитой. Коммунисты же и леворадикальные маргиналы тем более не стоят против ультраправых. Уже сейчас более половины французского рабочего класса поддерживают НФ.
Снова повторилась и «французская болезнь» мелкопартийных амбиций. Особенно среди левых, исступлённо мочивших друг друга по теоретическим и персоналистским мотивам. Впрочем, это можно понять – консолидироваться вокруг социалистического правительства и президента Олланда было бы политическим самоубийством. Никогда в своей истории Французская соцпартия не была менее популярна, чем сейчас, и не было в Пятой республике главы государства слабее Франсуа Олланда.
Результаты первого тура встряхнули политический класс. «Разногласия, лево и право и другие людские дела отступают при виде удава или крысы размером с вола», – мудро подметил российский поэт-либерал Дмитрий Быкова. Вновь был принят на вооружение принцип республиканской дисциплины. Левые и правые поддерживали друг друга – лишь бы кандидаты могли остановить Нацфронт.
Это дало эффект. 13 декабря НФ не смог победить ни в одном из 13 регионов. Проиграла в Пикардии и сама Марин Ле Пен. Наибольшего успеха добились правые консерваторы-республиканцы Николя Саркози. Под их контролем будут местные власти семи регионов, включая «сердце Франции» – столичный Иль-де-Франс. Географически эти территории лежат по всей стране, от Нормандии до Лазурного берега и от Эльзаса до Альп. Социалисты сохранили за собой пять регионов, преимущественно на юге и в центре. Интересен результат на острове Корсика: здесь успеха добились автономисты-сепаратисты из парнтии «Вместе за Корсику» во главе с адвокатом Жилем Симеони. Эта партия в принципе выступает за независимость острова, требует расширения автономии. Но, в отличие от подпольного Фронта освобождения, не выходит за рамки французской легальности.
Итак, если экстраполировать региональные итоги на будущие общенациональные, то следующая правящая партия – «Республиканцы», а на президентский пост вернётся Николя Саркози. Но линейная экстраполяция, как и формальная логика, бывает ущербна. Достаточно сказать, что в абсолютных цифрах Национальный фронт побил собственный рекорд. 6,8 млн французов никогда ещё не голосовали за ультраправых. Предотвратить победу Ле Пен удалось только путём межпартийных комбинаций. Электорат НФ продолжает возрастать, и этот процесс далёк от завершения.
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