Вчера в Италии состоялся конституционный референдум. Касался он сугубо внутренней политики, но вызвал громадный интерес европейских политиков и масс-медиа. Дело в том, что в условиях перманентного кризиса в ЕС итальянский премьер-министр Маттео Ренци в ходе агитационной кампании ясно дал понять: если сограждане не одобрят проект изменений в Конституцию, он уйдёт в отставку. Так теперь и будет.
Задуманные Ренци преобразования имели целью «организовать в Италии перезагрузку». Попросту говоря – упростить национальную политическую систему. Поправки вносились более чем в треть статей Основного закона. В частности, правительственный проект предлагал лишить верхнюю палату парламента – сенат – права принимать решения о вотуме доверия/недоверия правительству, сократить его численность с 315 до 100 членов и перейти от прямых выборов сенаторов к делегированию региональными органами власти (как в России). Согласно реформе, сенат отныне должен был высказываться лишь по вопросам территориального устройства страны, участия Италии в ЕС, защите языковых меньшинств, организации референдумов и собственно по проблематике деятельности самой верхней палаты. Также конституционная реформа предполагала усечение ряда полномочий регионов, отказ от деления Италии на провинции.
Ренци пошёл на плебисцит, поставив на кон своё политическое будущее. Хотя у правительственных партий, поддерживающих конституционную реформу, имеется большинство в обеих палатах. Рисковал он вроде бы обоснованно. В целом итог пребывания у власти коалиционного правительства, в котором ведущее место принадлежит социал-либеральной Демократической партии (ДП), скорее положителен. За последние два года на 1,6% вырос ВВП Италии. Промышленность в 2015 году поднялась почти на 2%. А ведь с 2007-го в течение 13 кварталов подряд итальянская экономика последовательно падала!
В прошлом году был прият закон о занятости. Правительство смогло несколько повысить общественные расходы, запустить реформу общественной администрации, начать непростые преобразования в налоговой сфере. Эксперты фиксировали подъём покупательной способности среди разных социальных слоёв в Италии.
Но социально-экономическая обстановка остаётся далеко не идеальной. Продолжает лихорадить национальную банковскую систему. Процентная ставка по долговым итальянским облигациям выросла до 3%, а общий объём «проблемных кредитов» на банковских балансах достиг почти 30 млрд евро. Госдолг составляет 2,2 трлн евро. Весьма высок уровень безработицы: 12% населения, в том числе около 40% молодых итальянцев.
Конституционные изменения поддержали лишь правительственные партии (ДП, «Новый правый центр», НПЦ «Гражданский выбор») и некоторые центристские партии. Их логику выражает точка зрения депутата парламента от ДП Фабио Лаваньо: «Мы хотим, чтобы правительству было намного легче принимать законы».
Круг противников реформы оказался достаточно разноликим. Сказать «нет» на референдуме призвали правые партии «Вперёд, Италия!» («Форца Италия»), Лига Севера, «Братья Италии», «Консерваторы и реформисты». В свою очередь, и левая оппозиция – радикальные социалисты и коммунисты – также голосовали «против».
Как справедливо отмечает французский политолог и специалист по итальянской политике профессор Марк Лазар, кампания перед голосованием определённо показала, что «в глазах избирателей центром тяжести лагеря «нет» стало движение «Пять звёзд». Именно вожак этого популистского движения Беппе Грилло блистал на митингах и манифестациях. Своими яркими спичами он призывал сограждан «сказать «нет» кризису и прогнившему политическому классу».
Как бы эксперты ни ценили 1000-дневное премьерство Ренци, в итоге молодой социал-либеральный премьер проиграл. По предварительным данным, при явке 65,5% избирателей 4 декабря более 59% сказали «нет» конституционным изменениям. Лишь в самом центре и на крайнем севере страны, то есть всего в трёх регионах Италии, правительство было поддержано.
Что это означает для Италии? Очевидно, что политический маятник качнулся в сторону оппозиции. К чести Маттео Ренци, сразу после объявления предварительных итогов он заявил об отставке. Возможно, в Италии, как это уже не раз бывало, назначат временное техническое правительство. Между тем, политическая оппозиция требует досрочных парламентских выборов. О своей решимости взять власть заявляет Беппе Грилло. Готов побороться и 80-летний лидер итальянских правых Сильвио Берлускони. Неутомимый «кабальеро» надеется на возрождение своей «форцы». Досрочных выборов очень ждёт и Лига Севера, известная симпатиями к Владимиру Путину и сходством с партией Владимира Жириновского. Левая оппозиция тоже получает шанс «отъесть» часть электората у ДП.
А пока курс евровалюты заметно упал. В Брюсселе очень боятся, что исход итальянского референдума поспособствует новому кризису зоны евро. Как отмечает итальянский политолог Джованни Керолли, «дело не только в том, что «нет» усилит популистов в Европейском Союзе; такой результат способен также вызвать эффект домино во всём ЕС».
Жорж Камарад, специально для «В кризис.ру»
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