Минфин РФ не согласен с прогнозом Минэкономразвития по притоку капитала в РФ в 2014-2015 годах, говорится в письме финансового ведомства в правительство РФ с замечаниями и предложениями по прогнозу социально-экономического развития на 2013 год и плановый период 2014-2015 годов, с текстом которого ознакомились «Интерфакс» и «Финмаркет».
По оценке Минэкономразвития, чистый отток капитала — на уровне $50-60 млрд — будет только в 2012 году. На 2013 год министерство прогнозирует нулевой приток. А в 2014 и 2015 годах Минэкономразвития ожидает притока в объеме $30 млрд и $40 млрд соответственно.
Минфин считает, что до конца прогнозного периода сохранится отток капитала. Это, отмечается в письме ведомства, в свою очередь повлияет на большее, чем в прогнозе, ослабление рубля.
Так, Минфин считает нереалистичным прогноз Минэкономразвития по ослаблению курса рубля в 2015 году к предыдущему году на 0,8%. Ослабление рубля будет более значительным, полагают в министерстве финансов. Рубль ослабнет не до 33,7 рублей за доллар в 2015 году, а более значительно, убеждены в Минфине (ранее в самом Минэкономразвития не исключали ослабления рубля до 46 за доллар).
Кроме того, в 2013-2015 гг. велика вероятность превышения прогнозного уровня инфляции, уверены в Минфине. Причина — в ускоренном росте тарифов на услуги ЖКХ. При среднегодовом приросте потребительских цен на 5,4%, рост тарифов на электроэнергию запланирован в 10,3%, на тепловую энергию — 9,7%, природный газ — 13,1%, на железнодорожные перевозки — на 10%. Это, по мнению Минфина, «создаст мощные инфляционные риски, снизит конкурентоспособность отечественных производителей».
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