К российской промышленности вплотную подбирается кризис взаимных неплатежей. «Закупорка» расчетов с потребителями и поставщиками грозит целому ряду отраслей. Виной всему — крупнейшие государственные компании, задерживающие исполнение финансовых обязательств перед партнерами.
Кризис неплатежей может начаться с металлургии и машиностроения. Представители крупнейших комбинатов этих отраслей заявляют, что финансовые расчеты по их производственным цепочкам застопорились, и начало взаимным неплатежам положили долги компаний с участием государства. Если в ближайшее время ситуация не изменится, всей российской промышленности угрожает системный кризис неплатежей, как это случилось в 1998 году.
Первым тревогу от имени компаний, для которых «закупорка» платежей превратилась в реальность, забил Магнитогорский металлургический комбинат. По словам председателя совета директоров комбината Виктора Рашникова, поразившая финансовую систему комбината болезнь взаимных неплатежей выглядит так: трубные компаний должны комбинату 6 млрд рублей, а трубникам должен «Газпром», его долги еще больше — 10 млрд рублей. Также «Магнитке» задолжали автопроизводители — более 3,5 млрд рублей, машиностроители — еще миллиард. Все вместе — 10,5 млрд рублей. «Мы никак не можем «расшиться» начиная с ноября месяца», — сетует Рашников.
Из-за долгов партнеров ММК держит на голодном пайке своих кредиторов. Угольщикам, железнорудным компаниям, заводам ферросплавов «Магнитка» должна по 2 млрд рублей.
«Газпром» — не единственная госкомпания, ставшая первым звеном в цепочке неплатежей. Претензии также предъявлены к АО «РЖД» и к его «дочке», отвечающей за грузоперевозки «Первой грузовой компанией». Железнодорожники должны «Уралвагонзаводу», а тот, в свою очередь, не может рассчитаться с «Магниткой», говорит гендиректор «Уралвагонзавода» Николай Малых.
Таким образом, кризис неплатежей в промышленности может начаться с госкомпаний, которые воспринимаются как символ надежности и стабильности и должны являть собой образец финансовой дисциплины.
В 1998 году кризис неплатежей в считанные дни поразил всю российскую промышленность. Компании и банки наращивали долги перед партнерами, в результате экономику накрыл снежный ком взаимных неплатежей. От государства потребовались жесткие и весьма болезненные меры по «расшивке» системы неплатежей. Сейчас есть возможность локализовать процесс в самом его начале. Металлурги и машиностроители просят государство помочь решить проблему взаимной задолженности промышленных компаний, погасив долги государственных компаний.
Схема не нова, она уже позволила в 1998 году вывести промышленность из-под кризиса неплатежей. «Все это можно сделать в одном банке, как это было в 1998 году. Берется кредит (для госкомпании — IFX.RU) и по цепочке осуществляются все взаимные расчеты», — объясняет Рашников. По его словам, государство обещало помочь в решении проблемы «расшивки» долгов металлургических и трубных компаний.
Надо думать, что большинство компаний, которые погрязли в паутине неплатежей, вошли в список крупнейших компаний, которым правительство обещало поддержку в период финансового кризиса. Тот факт, что именно государственные компании стали началом в системе взаимных неплатежей, является тревожным сигналом. Если в самое ближайшее время не будут предприняты радикальные меры по погашению догов госкомпаний и «расшивке» неплатежей, любой игрок на рынке вправе думать, что «теперь можно все».
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