Одна из сюжетных линий ливийской войны – «у кого укроется Каддафи?» Полковник много раз говорил, что ни у кого, и пока нет оснований сомневаться в его готовности биться до физического конца. Надуманный вопрос постоянно обсуждается как якобы актуальный. Но тема имеет оборотную сторону, отчасти проясняющую и суть «джамахирийского» режима, и причины его падения. Бросается в глаза, что среди стран, где Каддафи якобы готовы принять, практически нет арабских. Только Чёрная Африка и Латинская Америка.
В позициях Венесуэлы и Никарагуа проявляется политико-идеологическая близость. Уго Чавес с его «боливарианским социализмом» продолжает «антиимпериалистические» тенденции, от которых чем дальше, тем больше отказывался сам Каддафи. Внутри страны авторитарный популизм (не переходящий, однако, в «джамахиризм»). Вовне мессианская амбициозность, основанная на доходах от нефтеэкспорта. Что касается Никарагуа, то Даниэль Ортега фактически младший партнёр Каракаса.
С Чёрной Африкой гораздо глубже. Здесь дело не столько в идеях, сколько в конкретных политических и финансово-экономических связях. Значительная часть континента многие годы элементарно повязана ливийским контролем. Особенно экономическим.
Чужой среди не своих
Муамар Каддафи не был обычным диктатором, вроде какого-нибудь проамериканского Сомосы или просоветского Менгисту. Его изначальным побуждением являлся искренний мессианизм. Он пытался сформулировать новую идеологию и модель общественного устройства. Поначалу для арабского мира. Ливия была ещё не «великой джамахирией», а «арабской республикой», но в Триполи уже генерировались панарабистские проекты. Достигшие пика к началу 1980-х.
Это и привело к резкому отторжению Каддафи арабскими лидерами. У них сложилась своя геополитическая конфигурация с признанными центрами влияния — Египтом, Сирией, Алжиром, Саудовской Аравией. Раисов, королей и эмиров совершенно не устраивал молодой полковник с агрессивной левацкой идеологией, харизматичным напором, диктаторскими замашками и мощным нефтяным ресурсом.
С Египтом у Ливии произошло прямое вооружённое столкновение. И хотя в то время египетский президент Анвар Садат из-за своего сближения с Израилем сам являлся изгоем арабского мира, Каддафи не получил чьей-либо поддержки. Отказался от объединения и президент Сирии Хафез Асад-старший. Трудно складывались отношения с соседним Алжиром. Суданский президент Джафар Нимейри, ориентированный на Садата, был для Каддафи просто врагом. Это не говоря об аравийских нефтяных монархиях, где в Каддафи видели не только политического противника, но и прямого конкурента на нефтерынке.
Окончательно тупик арабской политики Каддафи обозначился в 1990 году. К тому времени Хосни Мубарак, сменивший убитого Садата, полностью восстановил положение Египта как арабского флагмана. Он занял жёсткую позицию в отношении Саддама Хусейна, поддержав коалицию, отбившую у Ирака захваченный было Кувейт. Каддафи пытался отчасти выгородить Хусейна и этим окончательно изолировал себя. «Хосни, зачем ты так?!» — восклицал Муамар, но египетский президент был непреклонен.
Проект всеарабской «джамахирии» провалился вместе с планами ливийской гегемонии. И тогда Каддафи обратил взор на юг. Он давно «окучивал» Чёрный континент, но с середины 1980-х его панарабизм окончательно сменился панафриканизмом.
Козырь, битый в Сахаре
Это был сильный креатив. Здесь «лидер ливийской революции» оказался практически вне конкуренции. Соперников уровня Мубарака, Асада или Саудитов ни в Сахеле, ни южнее Сахары он не имел. Зато получил немало клиентов.
Поворот осуществился не вдруг. Спонсировать некоторые африканские государства за счёт нефтеэкспортных доходов богатый и динамичный полковник начал ещё в 1970-х, создавая запасную площадку экспансии. Получателями ливийских субсидий и военно-политической поддержки были самые экстравагантные правители тогдашней Африки – такие, как Иди Амин в Уганде или Бокасса I в Центрально-Африканской Империи. Помимо прочего, именно деньги Каддафи накачали в Африке враждебность к Израилю. Это было немалым достижением арабского антиизраильского блока, и Каддафи резонно возмущался его недооценкой.
Вёл Каддафи и прямую военную экспансию. Соседний Чад – страну экономически бедную и политически раздираемую – в Триполи рассматривали как свой задний двор. Ливия активно вмешалась в чадскую «гражданку», превратившуюся в один из фронтов всемирной Холодной войны. Каддафисты опекали левоориентированную группировку президента Гукуни Уэддея против «африканского Пиночета» Хиссена Хабре. Но ставка оказалась бита. В 1982 году антикоммунисты Хабре – нейтрально именуемые «Вооружённые силы Севера» – свергли Уэддея и рассеяли его войска по Сахаре. Направленный Каддафи элитный «спецназ» ничего не смог изменить. А в 1987-м Хабре окончательно разгромил ливийские войска. Кстати, исход войны в Чаде звучал тревожным сигналом для советского ВПК, вооружавшего Каддафи, и тем самым по-своему стимулировал перестройку…
Впоследствии Хабре тоже был свергнут (а Уэддея, эмигрировавшего в Ливию, едва не убили местные спецслужбы, избавляясь от свидетеля поражения). Влияние Каддафи в Чаде отчасти восстановилось. Однако полного контроля добиться уже не удавалось. Приходилось вести сложные игры, оказывая посреднические услуги враждующим чадским группировкам, не забывая их спонсировать. Характерно, что на днях президент Чада Идрис Деби признал власть повстанческого Национального переходного совета (НПС). За ним последовало правительство Нигера, так же считавшееся ориентированным на Каддафи.
Союз, сплочённый инвестором
Чадское поражение, а вскоре исчезновение советского поставщика, вынудили Каддафи изменить методологию экспансии. Акценты были перенесены на идеологическое и особенно экономическое проникновение. «Джамахирийское» руководство учредило Арабо-африканскую инвестиционную компанию – LAAIC. Ливийские инвестиции потекли по Африке, от нищей Буркина Фасо до развитой Кении.
В суданской столице Хартуме (Нимейри был отстранён от власти в 1985-м) возвелось монументальное «яйцо Каддафи» — шикарный отель. В регионах компактного проживания африканских мусульман на ливийские средства развернулось широкое строительство мечетей. Субсидии Каддафи зачастую спасали африканские режимы от финансовых обвалов, позволяли хоть как-то удерживать местные «социалки». Каддафи широко трудоустраивал гастарбайтеров-негров, освобождая коренных ливийцев от наиболее трудозатратных и наименее оплачиваемых работ. Это было выгодно и африканским партнёрам, избавлявшимся у себя от резервной армии труда. Наконец, время от времени осуществлялось и военное вмешательство.
Оружие, спецслужбы и войска Каддафи оказывались веским фактором внутреннего противостояния в Уганде, Либерии, Сьерра-Леоне. Десять лет назад ливийские десантники спасли от падения тогдашнего президента Центрально-Африканской Республики Феликса Патассе (через два года, впрочем, он всё равно пал). Ещё недавно, в 2007-2009 годах, в Триполи фактически определялись судьбы властей Нигера и Мали за счёт манипулирования противостоянием местных правительств с повстанцами-туарегами.
Всё это обеспечивало либо лояльность, либо прямую ориентацию африканских правителей на Каддафи. К концу 1990-х он стал выводить свои панафриканские проекты на финишную прямую.
Перегруженная противоречиями Африка быстрее других континентов оформляет декларативное единение. Организация Африканского Единства существовала с 1963 года. Она и была по инициативе Каддафи преобразована в Африканский Союз (АС). Намерение оформилось 9 сентября 1999 года Сиртской декларацией – в родном городе Каддафи, через 8 дней после торжественно отмеченного 30-летнего юбилея прихода полковника к власти. Учредился же Афросоюз 9 июля 2002-го.
В АС входят 54 государства. Правда, членство многих из них остаётся лишь формальным. Отчасти из-за объективных различий в уровне развития и ориентациях. А отчасти именно потому, что не все африканские лидеры рвались под опеку Каддафи. Хотя штаб-квартиры АС официально разместились в Эфиопии и ЮАР, ни одно решение не принималось без визы в Триполи или Сирте.
В Ливии базировалась LAAIC, а также Африканский инвестиционный банк. Африканский валютный фонд в камерунской столице Яунде и Африканский центральный банк в нигерийской Абудже реально являли собой подразделения главного «джамахирийского» госинвестфонда LIA. Хотя бюджет Афросоюза сравнительно не велик – несколько сотен миллионов долларов, реальные суммы вложений в интеграционные проекты на порядок превышали этот показатель. Собственные активы LIA оценивались в $70 млрд, а с учётом аффилированных через ливийский Центробанк и некоторые другие ведомства и компании особого статуса – минимум вдвое больше. Ливийские капиталы шли и в европейском (вспоминаются рассказы Сейифа аль-Ислама Каддафи о финансировании предвыборной кампании Николя Саркози), и в американском направлении. Но однозначный приоритет отдавался Африке.
Каддафи ставил вопрос о переводе финансовой системы континента на единую валюту – золотой динар. Декларировалось, что афровалюта обеспечит экономическую независимость Африки от американцев и европейцев. Теоретически всё было складно, если не считать, что реально африканцам предлагалась другая зависимость, как минимум не менее жёсткая. Эмиссионный центр, разумеется, расположился бы в Триполи. Где закономерно утвердились бы и наднациональные органы политического руководства «Соединёнными Штатами Африки».
Прощание с основателем
«Джамахирийскую» систему никто на Чёрном континенте не перенимал, но дело не в названиях. Неважно, именует ли себя зимбабвийский правитель Роберт Мугабе «Братом-Лидером», как Каддафи, или всего лишь президентом. Важно, что этот пост он занимает 24 года (а до того 7 лет стоял во главе правительства). Именно Мугабе и такие, как он – экстравагантные диктаторы с левым политическим бэкграундом — были самыми близкими союзниками Каддафи. Главный африканский бастион СССР, Эфиопия при Менгисту Хайле Мариаме, вообще состоял в военно-политическом альянсе с «Джамхирией». Падение Менгисту весной 1991 года, происшедшее в формах, сходных с нынешними ливийскими событиями, явилось одним из главных поражений Каддафи.
Страны прозападной ориентации, как Кот д’Ивуар (за исключением пятилетнего правления социалиста Лорана Гбагбо, сброшенного весной в результате восстания северных племён под демократическими лозунгами, поддержанного Францией) или Сенегал, от «Джамахирии» дистанцировались. Равно как самая населённая страна Африки – Нигерия. Но власти Триполи имели влиятельного партнёра. В последние два года им был нынешний президент ЮАР Джейкоб Зума.
Эксцентричный бывший коммунист и официальный многожёнец, Зума вообще напоминает Каддафи. Не только левыми взглядами, но и политической стилистикой. Каддафи предпочитает бедуинские одеяния, Зума не прочь облачиться в леопардовые шкуры. Каддафи принимает гостей в знаменитом шатре, Зума в респектабельном чёрном костюме исполняет современные быстрые танцы или играет в футбол… Континентальная ось «Триполи-Претория», пролегавшая с севера на юг через весь континент, превращалась в стержень АС. Так было до февраля.
Не случайно именно Зума возглавлял делегацию Афросоюза, которая всеми силами пыталась урегулировать ливийский конфликт на условиях сохранения Каддафи у власти. Хотя бы в коалиции с НПС, который, однако, отверг эти предложения. Не случайно и то, что Зуму, тепло принятого Каддафи, за малым не освистали в Бенгази.
Именно ЮАР до последнего блокировала размораживание ООН ливийских авуаров. Согласие было дано лишь при изъятии из резолюции упоминаний о НПС. Наконец, на саммите АС 26 августа опять-таки Зума заблокировал признание НПС единственной законной властью Ливии. Афросаммит ограничился малосодержательным призывом к скорейшей стабилизации положения на демократической основе.
Панафриканская организация, фактически основанная Каддафи, не готова открыто декларировать отречение от него. Африканские государства делают это по отдельности. Если в первые три месяца войны в Ливии НПС признали лишь два из них – Гамбия и Сенегал, то в августе такие признания пошли лавиной. Оригинально поступило правительство Буркина Фасо: признав НПС, оно одновременно предложило убежище не просившему об этом Каддафи. Диалектическое единство службы и дружбы. Впрочем, буркинийскому президенту Блэзу Кампаоре с некоторых пор хватает своих проблем.
Различия в позициях по ливийской войне становятся первым признаком раскола. Противоположные подходы наглядно демонстрируют такие влиятельные лидеры, как, с одной стороны, Зума, с другой — президент Сенегала Абдулай Вад. Африканский Союз больше не цементируется деньгами и войсками Каддафи. Противоречия выходят наружу, в Африке возобновляется противоборство проектов, олицетворяемых, условно говоря, левыми и правыми правительствами.
[…] (и жизни) Каддафи, разругавшись с арабским миром, возжелал стать главным вождём Африки. На этот бессмысленно-безумный проект он вышвыривал […]
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