Россия заняла пятое место по вероятности дефолта в рейтинге стран мира, передает Bloomberg. При этом, как отмечает издание, Россия опередила даже такие страны как Ливан, Португалия и Египет.
По информации издания, в ближайшие девяносто дней агентство S&P с вероятностью 50% может понизить суверенный рейтинг России. Напомним, 23 декабря международное рейтинговое агентство Standard & Poor’s отправило суверенный кредитный рейтинг России на пересмотр с «негативным» прогнозом.
Одной из главных причин понижения рейтинга может послужить обвал цен на нефть, который наблюдается последние три месяца. Это, по мнению аналитиков, и вызвало девальвацию рубля, инфляцию и снижение доступа к кредитам.
Доходность российских гособлигаций остается одной из самых высоких на развивающихся рынках. Так, доходность по гособлигациям со сроком погашения до 2023 года в долларах составляет 7%, в то время как доходность аналогичных ценных бумаг Ливана — 5,9%.
Агентство Fitch может понизить суверенный кредитный рейтинг России до мусорного уровня. По мнению экспертов, окончательное решение Standard & Poor’s будет зависеть от того, наметится ли прогресс в переговорах России с Евросоюзом по ситуации на востоке Украины.
В четверг с прогнозом о возможном дефолте России выступил известный финансист Джордж Сорос. По его мнению, из-за резкого падения цен на нефть западные санкции ударили по стране сильнее, чем на это рассчитывали европейские и американские лидеры.
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